Justin Trudeau's Political Future Is Uncertain. Here Are 5 Ways It
Trudeau faces the prospect of resignation if public pressure mounts or if his Liberal Party loses the confidence of Parliament. A confidence vote could be triggered by the opposition parties or by a significant number of dissident Liberals.
Trudeau could call an early election in an attempt to reset his mandate and seek a fresh start. However, with the Liberal Party's popularity waning, this option carries significant risks.
Within the Liberal Party, disgruntled members could launch a leadership challenge against Trudeau. Potential contenders include Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland and Environment Minister Steven Guilbeault.
The next federal election could result in a minority government, with no party holding a majority of seats. This would require Trudeau to negotiate with other parties to stay in power.
Despite the challenges, Trudeau could remain as Prime Minister, albeit with a diminished mandate. He could weather the storm by addressing public concerns and rebuilding trust through policy actions.
"Trudeau's political future is highly uncertain," said political scientist John Ibbitson. "He faces a confluence of challenges that could lead to his downfall or a prolonged period of instability."
Trudeau's recent troubles stem from the SNC-Lavalin scandal, which involved allegations of political interference to shield the company from prosecution. Additionally, the government has faced criticism over its handling of the COVID-19 pandemic and protests over vaccine mandates.
The outcome of Trudeau's political future will depend on a number of factors, including the response of the public, the actions of opposition parties, and the decisions made by Trudeau himself. The coming months will be critical in determining the fate of the Canadian Prime Minister.